2026: The Year of Preparation

By Christopher Braccia January 2026
 

The Davidson Window closes in twelve months.
 

Whether or not Beijing has marked a specific date on a calendar, CIA Director William Burns has stated that US intelligence is certain Xi has ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Admiral John Aquilino, former head of Indo-Pacific Command, testified that "all indications point to the PLA meeting President Xi Jinping's directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027."
 

Ready does not mean inevitable. But ready means capable. And capable changes everything.
 

2026 is not the year to watch what happens. 2026 is the year to prepare for what might.
 

The Convergence of Clocks

Multiple "clocks" are converging: China's growing recognition that peaceful unification is unlikely; President Xi Jinping's goal for the military to be ready and capable by its centenary in 2027; the approaching end of Xi Jinping's third term as CCP general secretary; Taiwan's election cycle, which concludes in January 2028; and Western progress in developing defensive systems against Chinese hypersonic missiles.

For critical infrastructure operators, supply chain managers, and national security professionals, the question is no longer academic. The question is operational: What does Day One look like for your organization?

 

 

What Industry Must Do Now

The communications sector learned hard lessons from Salt Typhoon. PRC actors maintained persistent access to US telecommunications infrastructure for months before detection. The pre-positioning we warned about for years materialized exactly as predicted.
 

But telecommunications is not the only sector at risk. A Taiwan contingency would cascade across every critical infrastructure sector simultaneously:
 

Energy: Disruption to liquefied natural gas shipments from the Indo-Pacific. Potential cyber operations against grid infrastructure. Supply chain dependencies on Chinese components in renewable energy systems.
 

Financial Services: Sanctions enforcement complexity. SWIFT alternatives. Exposure to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and downstream impacts on every sector dependent on advanced chips.
 

Transportation and Logistics: Shipping lane disruptions through the South China Sea. Port infrastructure dependencies. Aviation route closures across the Western Pacific.
 

Food and Agriculture: Fertilizer supply chains. Cold chain logistics. Processing equipment dependencies.
 

Healthcare: Pharmaceutical precursor chemicals sourced from China. Medical device manufacturing. Generic drug supply chains.
 

The Preparation Checklist

For CISOs, supply chain officers, and business continuity planners, 2026 should include:

1. Map your China and Taiwan exposure. Not just direct suppliers, but tier-two and tier-three dependencies. Understand where Taiwan Semiconductor sits in your technology stack. Identify single points of failure.

2. Scenario plan for a blockade, not just invasion. Military options could include selective or extensive missile strikes; a civilian maritime quarantine or a military blockade; the seizure of one of the Kinmen Islands close to China; or a full-scale amphibious invasion. 
 

Not Prediction, Preparation

I am not predicting a 2027 invasion. No one outside Beijing's inner circle knows if or when Xi will give an order. "It's not like Xi Jinping has a calendar up in his office with a date in 2027 marked 'invade Taiwan,'" as one US official noted.
 

But I am saying that the responsible posture for any organization with Indo-Pacific exposure is to assume that the capability will exist and to prepare accordingly. The cost of preparation is measured in budget and attention. The cost of surprise is measured in operational failure.
 

Taiwan's role as the epicenter of chip manufacturing means the possibility of conflict there has massive implications for the global economy. No sector is immune. No organization is too small to be affected.

    










The Davidson Window closes in twelve months. What are you doing with the time you have left?